Ninety years of change, from commercial extinction to recovery, range expansion and decline for Antarctic fur seals at South Georgia.

With environmental change, understanding how species recover from overharvesting and maintain viable populations is central to ecosystem restoration. Here, we reconstruct 90 years of recovery trajectory of the Antarctic fur seal at South Georgia (S.W. Atlantic), a key indicator species in the krill-based food webs of the Southern Ocean. After being harvested to commercial extinction by 1907, this population rebounded and now constitutes the most abundant otariid in the World. However, its status remains uncertain due to insufficient and conflicting data, and anthropogenic pressures affecting Antarctic krill, an essential staple for millions of fur seals and other predators. Using integrated population models, we estimated simultaneously the long-term abundance for Bird Island, northwest South Georgia, epicentre of recovery of the species after sealing, and population adjustments for survey counts with spatiotemporal applicability. Applied to the latest comprehensive survey data, we estimated the population at South Georgia in 2007-2009 as 3,510,283 fur seals [95% CI: 3,140,548-3,919,604] (ca. 98% of global population), after 40 years of maximum growth and range expansion owing to an abundant krill supply. At Bird Island, after 50 years of exponential growth followed by 25 years of slow stable growth, the population collapsed in 2009 and has thereafter declined by -7.2% [-5.2, -9.1] per annum, to levels of the 1970s. For the instrumental record, this trajectory correlates with a time-varying relationship between coupled climate and sea surface temperature cycles associated with low regional krill availability, although the effects of increasing krill extraction by commercial fishing and natural competitors remain uncertain. Since 2015, fur seal longevity and recruitment have dropped, sexual maturation has retarded, and population growth is expected to remain mostly negative and highly variable. Our analysis documents the rise and fall of a key Southern Ocean predator over a century of profound environmental and ecosystem change.

Sexual segregation in juvenile Antarctic fur seals.

Sexual segregation, the differential space, habitat or resource use by males and females, can have profound implications for conservation, as one sex may be more vulnerable to environmental and anthropogenic stressors. The drivers of sexual segregation, such as sex differences in body size, breeding constraints, and social behaviour, have been well studied in adults but are poorly understood in immature animals. To determine whether sexual segregation occurs in juvenile Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella, and investigate the underlying drivers, we deployed Global Location Sensors on 26 males and 19 females of 1-3 years of age at Bird Island, South Georgia. Sexual segregation occurred in foraging distribution, primarily in latitude, with females foraging closer to South Georgia and the Polar Front, and males foraging further south near the Antarctic Peninsula. This segregation was particularly evident in Feb-Apr and May-Nov, and males spent more time hauled out than females in May-Nov. Although juveniles have no immediate reproductive commitments, reproductive selection pressures are still likely to operate and drive sex differences in body size, risk-taking, and social roles. These factors, coupled with prey distribution, likely contributed to sexual segregation in juvenile Antarctic fur seals. Consequently, male and female juveniles may compete with different fisheries and respond differently to environmental change, highlighting the importance of considering sex and age groups in species conservation efforts.

Overlap between marine predators and proposed Marine Managed Areas on the Patagonian Shelf.

Static (fixed-boundary) protected areas are key ocean conservation strategies, and marine higher predator distribution data can play a leading role toward identifying areas for conservation action. The Falkland Islands are a globally significant site for colonial breeding marine higher predators (i.e., seabirds and pinnipeds). However, overlap between marine predators and Falkland Islands proposed Marine Managed Areas (MMAs) has not been quantified. Hence, to provide information required to make informed decisions regarding the implementation of proposed MMAs, our aims were to objectively assess how the proposed MMA network overlaps with contemporary estimates of marine predator distribution. We collated tracking data (1999-2019) and used a combination of kernel density estimation and model-based predictions of spatial usage to quantify overlap between colonial breeding marine predators and proposed Falkland Islands MMAs. We also identified potential IUCN Key Biodiversity Areas (pKBAs) using (1) kernel density based methods originally designed to identify Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) and (2) habitat preference models. The proposed inshore MMA, which extends three nautical miles from the Falkland Islands, overlapped extensively with areas used by colonial breeding marine predators. This reflects breeding colonies being distributed throughout the Falklands archipelago, and use being high adjacent to colonies due to central-place foraging constraints. Up to 45% of pKBAs identified via kernel density estimation were located within the proposed MMAs. In particular, the proposed Jason Islands Group MMA overlapped with pKBAs for three marine predator species, suggesting it is a KBA hot spot. However, tracking data coverage was incomplete, which biased pKBAs identified using kernel density methods, to colonies tracked. Moreover, delineation of pKBA boundaries were sensitive to the choice of smoothing parameter used in kernel density estimation. Delineation based on habitat model predictions for both sampled and unsampled colonies provided less biased estimates, and revealed 72% of the Falkland Islands Conservation Zone was likely a KBA. However, it may not be practical to consider such a large area for fixed-boundary management. In the context of wide-ranging marine predators, emerging approaches such as dynamic ocean management could complement static management frameworks such as MMAs, and provide protection at relevant spatiotemporal scales.

Wintertime overlaps between female Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) and the krill fishery at South Georgia, South Atlantic.

The diet of Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) at South Georgia is dominated by Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). During the breeding season, foraging trips by lactating female fur seals are constrained by their need to return to land to provision their pups. Post-breeding, seals disperse in order to feed and recover condition; estimates indicate c.70% of females remain near to South Georgia, whilst others head west towards the Patagonian Shelf or south to the ice-edge. The krill fishery at South Georgia operates only during the winter, providing the potential for fur seal: fishery interaction during these months. Here we use available winter (May to September) tracking data from Platform Terminal Transmitter (PTT) tags deployed on female fur seals at Bird Island, South Georgia. We develop habitat models describing their distribution during the winters of 1999 and 2003 with the aim of visualising and quantifying the degree of spatial overlap between female fur seals and krill harvesting in South Georgia waters. We show that spatial distribution of fur seals around South Georgia is extensive, and that the krill fishery overlaps with small, highly localised areas of available fur seal habitat. From these findings we discuss the implications for management, and future work.

Risk exposure trade-offs in the ontogeny of sexual segregation in Antarctic fur seal pups.

Sexual segregation has important ecological implications, but its initial development in early life stages is poorly understood. We investigated the roles of size dimorphism, social behavior, and predation risk on the ontogeny of sexual segregation in Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella, pups at South Georgia. Beaches and water provide opportunities for pup social interaction and learning (through play and swimming) but increased risk of injury and death (from other seals, predatory birds, and harsh weather), whereas tussock grass provides shelter from these risks but less developmental opportunities. One hundred pups were sexed and weighed, 50 on the beach and 50 in tussock grass, in January, February, and March annually from 1989 to 2018. Additionally, 19 male and 16 female pups were GPS-tracked during lactation from December 2012. Analysis of pup counts and habitat use of GPS-tracked pups suggested that females had a slightly higher association with tussock grass habitats and males with beach habitats. GPS-tracked pups traveled progressively further at sea as they developed, and males traveled further than females toward the end of lactation. These sex differences may reflect contrasting drivers of pup behavior: males being more risk prone to gain social skills and lean muscle mass and females being more risk averse to improve chances of survival, ultimately driven by their different reproductive roles. We conclude that sex differences in habitat use can develop in a highly polygynous species prior to the onset of major sexual size dimorphism, which hints that these sex differences will increasingly diverge in later life.

Intra-specific Niche Partitioning in Antarctic Fur Seals, Arctocephalus gazella.

Competition for resources within a population can lead to niche partitioning between sexes, throughout ontogeny and among individuals, allowing con-specifics to co-exist. We aimed to quantify such partitioning in Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella, breeding at South Georgia, which hosts ~95% of the world's population. Whiskers were collected from 20 adult males and 20 adult females and stable isotope ratios were quantified every 5 mm along the length of each whisker. Nitrogen isotope ratios (δ15N) were used as proxies for trophic position and carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) indicated foraging habitat. Sexual segregation was evident: δ13C values were significantly lower in males than females, indicating males spent more time foraging south of the Polar Front in maritime Antarctica. In males δ13C values declined with age, suggesting males spent more time foraging south throughout ontogeny. In females δ13C values revealed two main foraging strategies: 70% of females spent most time foraging south of the Polar Front and had similar δ15N values to males, while 30% of females spent most time foraging north of the Polar Front and had significantly higher δ15N values. This niche partitioning may relax competition and ultimately elevate population carrying capacity with implications for ecology, evolution and conservation.

Thirty years of marine debris in the Southern Ocean: Annual surveys of two island shores in the Scotia Sea.

We report on three decades of repeat surveys of beached marine debris at two locations in the Scotia Sea, in the Southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Between October 1989 and March 2019 10,112 items of beached debris were recovered from Main Bay, Bird Island, South Georgia in the northern Scotia Sea. The total mass of items (data from 1996 onwards) was 101 kg. Plastic was the most commonly recovered item (97.5% by number; 89% by mass) with the remainder made up of fabric, glass, metal, paper and rubber. Mean mass per item was 0.01 kg and the rate of accumulation was 100 items km-1 month-1. Analyses showed an increase in the number of debris items recovered (5.7 per year) but a decline in mean mass per item, suggesting a trend towards more, smaller items of debris at Bird Island. At Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, located in the southern Scotia Sea and within the Antarctic Treaty area, debris items were collected from three beaches, during the austral summer only, between 1991 and 2019. In total 1304 items with a mass of 268 kg were recovered. Plastic items contributed 84% by number and 80% by mass, with the remainder made up of metal (6% by number; 14% by mass), rubber (4% by number; 3% by mass), fabric, glass and paper (<1% by number; 3% by mass). Mean mass per item was 0.2 kg and rate of accumulation was 3 items km-1 month-1. Accumulation rates were an order of magnitude higher on the western (windward) side of the island (13-17 items km-1 month-1) than the eastern side (1.5 items km-1 month-1). Analyses showed a slight decline in number and slight increase in mean mass of debris items over time at Signy Island. This study highlights the prevalence of anthropogenic marine debris (particularly plastic) in the Southern Ocean. It shows the importance of long-term monitoring efforts in attempting to catalogue marine debris and identify trends, and serves warning of the urgent need for a wider understanding of the extent of marine debris across the whole of the Southern Ocean.

Author Correction: Important At-Sea Areas of Colonial Breeding Marine Predators on the Southern Patagonian Shelf.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Important At-Sea Areas of Colonial Breeding Marine Predators on the Southern Patagonian Shelf.

The Patagonian Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem supports high levels of biodiversity and endemism and is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. Despite the important role marine predators play in structuring the ecosystems, areas of high diversity where multiple predators congregate remains poorly known on the Patagonian Shelf. Here, we used biotelemetry and biologging tags to track the movements of six seabird species and three pinniped species breeding at the Falkland Islands. Using Generalized Additive Models, we then modelled these animals' use of space as functions of dynamic and static environmental indices that described their habitat. Based on these models, we mapped the predicted distribution of animals from both sampled and unsampled colonies and thereby identified areas where multiple species were likely to overlap at sea. Maximum foraging trip distance ranged from 79 to 1,325 km. However, most of the 1,891 foraging trips by 686 animals were restricted to the Patagonian Shelf and shelf slope, which highlighted a preference for these habitats. Of the seven candidate explanatory covariates used to predict distribution, distance from the colony was retained in models for all species and negatively affected the probability of occurrence. Predicted overlap among species was highest on the Patagonian Shelf around the Falkland Islands and the Burdwood Bank. The predicted area of overlap is consistent with areas that are also important habitat for marine predators migrating from distant breeding locations. Our findings provide comprehensive multi-species predictions for some of the largest marine predator populations on the Patagonian Shelf, which will contribute to future marine spatial planning initiatives. Crucially, our findings highlight that spatially explicit conservation measures are likely to benefit multiple species, while threats are likely to impact multiple species.

Long term movements and activity patterns of an Antarctic marine apex predator: The leopard seal.

Leopard seals are an important Antarctic apex predator that can affect marine ecosystems through local predation. Here we report on the successful use of micro geolocation logging sensor tags to track the movements, and activity, of four leopard seals for trips of between 142-446 days including one individual in two separate years. Whilst the sample size is small the results represent an advance in our limited knowledge of leopard seals. We show the longest periods of tracking of leopard seals' migratory behaviour between the pack ice, close to the Antarctic continent, and the sub-Antarctic island of South Georgia. It appears that these tracked animals migrate in a directed manner towards Bird Island and, during their residency, use this as a central place for foraging trips as well as exploiting the local penguin and seal populations. Movements to the South Orkney Islands were also recorded, similar to those observed in other predators in the region including the krill fishery. Analysis of habitat associations, taking into account location errors, indicated the tracked seals had an affinity for shallow shelf water and regions of sea ice. Wet and dry sensors revealed that seals hauled out for between 22 and 31% of the time with maximum of 74 hours and a median of between 9 and 11 hours. The longest period a seal remained in the water was between 13 and 25 days. Fitting GAMMs showed that haul out rates changed throughout the year with the highest values occurring during the summer which has implications for visual surveys. Peak haul out occurred around midday for the months between October and April but was more evenly spread across the day between May and September. The seals' movements between, and behaviour within, areas important to breeding populations of birds and other seals, coupled with the dynamics of the region's fisheries, shows an understanding of leopard seal ecology is vital in the management of the Southern Ocean resources.

Habitat use and spatial fidelity of male South American sea lions during the nonbreeding period.

Conditions experienced during the nonbreeding period have profound long-term effects on individual fitness and survival. Therefore, knowledge of habitat use during the nonbreeding period can provide insights into processes that regulate populations. At the Falkland Islands, the habitat use of South American sea lions (Otaria flavescens) during the nonbreeding period is of particular interest because the population is yet to recover from a catastrophic decline between the mid-1930s and 1965, and nonbreeding movements are poorly understood. Here, we assessed the habitat use of adult male (n = 13) and juvenile male (n = 6) South American sea lions at the Falkland Islands using satellite tags and stable isotope analysis of vibrissae. Male South American sea lions behaved like central place foragers. Foraging trips were restricted to the Patagonian Shelf and were typically short in distance and duration (127 ± 66 km and 4.1 ± 2.0 days, respectively). Individual male foraging trips were also typically characterized by a high degree of foraging site fidelity. However, the isotopic niche of adult males was smaller than juvenile males, which suggested that adult males were more consistent in their use of foraging habitats and prey over time. Our findings differ from male South American sea lions in Chile and Argentina, which undertake extended movements during the nonbreeding period. Hence, throughout their breeding range, male South American sea lions have diverse movement patterns during the nonbreeding period that intuitively reflects differences in the predictability or accessibility of preferred prey. Our findings challenge the long-standing notion that South American sea lions undertake a winter migration away from the Falkland Islands. Therefore, impediments to South American sea lion population recovery likely originate locally and conservation measures at a national level are likely to be effective in addressing the decline and the failure of the population to recover.

Pup Vibrissae Stable Isotopes Reveal Geographic Differences in Adult Female Southern Sea Lion Habitat Use during Gestation.

Individuals within populations often differ substantially in habitat use, the ecological consequences of which can be far reaching. Stable isotope analysis provides a convenient and often cost effective means of indirectly assessing the habitat use of individuals that can yield valuable insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of foraging specialisations within a population. Here we use the stable isotope ratios of southern sea lion (Otaria flavescens) pup vibrissae at the Falkland Islands, in the South Atlantic, as a proxy for adult female habitat use during gestation. A previous study found that adult females from one breeding colony (Big Shag Island) foraged in two discrete habitats, inshore (coastal) or offshore (outer Patagonian Shelf). However, as this species breeds at over 70 sites around the Falkland Islands, it is unclear if this pattern is representative of the Falkland Islands as a whole. In order to characterize habitat use, we therefore assayed carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) ratios from 65 southern sea lion pup vibrissae, sampled across 19 breeding colonies at the Falkland Islands. Model-based clustering of pup isotope ratios identified three distinct clusters, representing adult females that foraged inshore, offshore, and a cluster best described as intermediate. A significant difference was found in the use of inshore and offshore habitats between West and East Falkland and between the two colonies with the largest sample sizes, both of which are located in East Falkland. However, habitat use was unrelated to the proximity of breeding colonies to the Patagonian Shelf, a region associated with enhanced biological productivity. Our study thus points towards other factors, such as local oceanography and its influence on resource distribution, playing a prominent role in inshore and offshore habitat use.

Disentangling the cause of a catastrophic population decline in a large marine mammal.

Considerable uncertainties often surround the causes of long-term changes in population abundance. One striking example is the precipitous decline of southern sea lions (SSL; Otariaflavescens) at the Falkland Islands, from 80 555 pups in the mid 1930s to just 5506 pups in 1965. Despite an increase in SSL abundance over the past two decades, the population has not recovered, with the number of pups born in 2014 (minimum 4443 pups) less than 6% of the 1930s estimate. The order-of-magnitude decline is primarily attributed to commercial sealing in Argentina. Here, we test this established paradigm and alternative hypotheses by assessing (1) commercial sealing at the Falkland Islands, (2) winter migration of SSL from the Falkland Islands to Argentina, (3) whether the number of SSL in Argentina could have sustained the reported level of exploitation, and (4) environmental change. The most parsimonious hypothesis explaining the SSL population decline was environmental change. Specifically, analysis of 160 years of winter sea surface temperatures revealed marked changes, including a period of warming between 1930 and 1950 that was consistent with the period of SSL decline. Sea surface temperature changes likely influenced the distribution or availability of SSL prey and impacted its population dynamics. We suggest that historical harvesting may not always be the "smoking gun" as is often purported. Rather, our conclusions support the growing evidence for bottom-up forcing on the abundance of species at lower trophic levels (e.g., plankton and fish) and resulting impacts on higher trophic levels across a broad range of ecosystems.

Love thy neighbour or opposites attract? Patterns of spatial segregation and association among crested penguin populations during winter.

AIM: Competition for food among populations of closely related species and conspecifics that occur in both sympatry and parapatry can be reduced by interspecific and intraspecific spatial segregation. According to predictions of niche partitioning, segregation is expected to occur at habitat boundaries among congeners and within habitats among conspecifics, while negative relationships in the density of species or populations will occur in areas of overlap. We tested these predictions by modelling the winter distributions of two crested penguin species from three colonies in the south-western Atlantic. LOCATION: Penguins were tracked from two large colonies on the Falkland Islands and one in South Georgia, from where they dispersed through the South Atlantic, Southern Ocean and south-eastern Pacific. METHODS: Forty macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus) from South Georgia and 82 southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome chrysocome) from two colonies in the Falkland Islands were equipped with global location sensors which log time and light, allowing positions to be estimated twice-daily, from April to August in 2011. Positions were gridded and converted into maps of penguin density. Metrics of overlap were calculated and density was related to remote-sensed oceanographic variables and competitor density using generalized additive models. RESULTS: Macaroni penguins from western South Georgia and southern rockhopper penguins from Steeple Jason Island, Falkland Islands, were spatially segregated by differences in their habitat preferences thus supporting our first prediction regarding interspecific segregation. However, southern rockhopper penguins from Beauchêne Island showed a marked spatial overlap with macaroni penguins as the two had similar habitat preferences and strong mutual associations when controlling for habitat. Contrary to our predictions relating to intraspecific segregation, southern rockhopper penguins from Beauchêne Island and Steeple Jason Island were segregated by differences in habitat selection. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Morphological differentiation probably allows macaroni penguins from South Georgia and southern rockhopper penguins from Beauchêne Island to coexist in areas of spatial overlap, whereas segregation of the two Falkland rockhopper penguin populations may have arisen from two distinct lineages retaining cultural fidelity to ancestral wintering areas.

The South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands MPA: protecting a biodiverse oceanic island chain situated in the flow of the antarctic circumpolar current.

South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands (SGSSI) are surrounded by oceans that are species-rich, have high levels of biodiversity, important endemism and which also support large aggregations of charismatic upper trophic level species. Spatial management around these islands is complex, particularly in the context of commercial fisheries that exploit some of these living resources. Furthermore, management is especially complicated as local productivity relies fundamentally upon biological production transported from outside the area. The MPA uses practical management boundaries, allowing access for the current legal fisheries for Patagonian toothfish, mackerel icefish and Antarctic krill. Management measures developed as part of the planning process designated the whole SGSSI Maritime Zone as an IUCN Category VI reserve, within which a number of IUCN Category I reserves were identified. Multiple-use zones and temporal closures were also designated. A key multiple-use principle was to identify whether the ecological impacts of a particular fishery threatened either the pelagic or benthic domain.

Whales from space: counting southern right whales by satellite.

We describe a method of identifying and counting whales using very high resolution satellite imagery through the example of southern right whales breeding in part of the Golfo Nuevo, Península Valdés in Argentina. Southern right whales have been extensively hunted over the last 300 years and although numbers have recovered from near extinction in the early 20(th) century, current populations are fragmented and are estimated at only a small fraction of pre-hunting total. Recent extreme right whale calf mortality events at Península Valdés, which constitutes the largest single population, have raised fresh concern for the future of the species. The WorldView2 satellite has a maximum 50 cm resolution and a water penetrating coastal band in the far-blue part of the spectrum that allows it to see deeper into the water column. Using an image covering 113 km², we identified 55 probable whales and 23 other features that are possibly whales, with a further 13 objects that are only detected by the coastal band. Comparison of a number of classification techniques, to automatically detect whale-like objects, showed that a simple thresholding technique of the panchromatic and coastal band delivered the best results. This is the first successful study using satellite imagery to count whales; a pragmatic, transferable method using this rapidly advancing technology that has major implications for future surveys of cetacean populations.

Entanglement of Antarctic fur seals at Bird Island, South Georgia.

Between November 1989 and March 2013, 1033 Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella were observed entangled in marine debris at Bird Island, South Georgia. The majority of entanglements involved plastic packaging bands (43%), synthetic line (25%) or fishing net (17%). Juvenile male seals were the most commonly entangled (44%). A piecewise regression analysis showed that a single breakpoint at 1994 gave the best description of inter-annual variability in the data, with higher levels of entanglements prior to 1994 (mean=110±28) followed by persistent lower levels (mean=28±4). Records of entanglements from other sites monitored in the Scotia Sea are also presented. Legislation imposed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) has, to a certain extent, been effective, but persistent low levels of seal entanglements are still a cause for concern at South Georgia.